Nervous Times

The afternoon's been abuzz with the big news: it looks like Trump may be impeached. Nancy Pelosi, long an impeachment skeptic, announced today that she's officially opening an impeachment inquiry.

Of course, as with most such processes, the announcement portends no immediate change but, at best, a months-long process of governmental deadlock.

"Trump is being impeached." I've expected to write or read that sentence since 2016. A well-known grifter with a scandal-ridden past, Trump can hardly be surprised to face as much inquiry as he does. I get the sense, in fact, that Trump knows of no life absent people criticizing him for his behavior. It's almost like he believes that, if no one is seriously questioning his ethics, he's not really doing anything.

I have no idea if or how impeachment will actually unfold in the weeks ahead. Today's sizzling story is tomorrow's Y2K. And Trump has so often dodged accountability that any cry of victory by his opponents (or even by folk interested in holding him to some professional-presidential standards) seems like yet another cry of wolf. Remember the umpteenth time Trump was going to be impeached? For that whistleblower thing? Yeah, that fizzled, too.

Pelosi's reticence to impeach, of course, stems from the fact that impeachment backfires on the impeachers. It promises to drive up support for Trump--Trump the underdog, Trump the martyr, tormented by the Deep State Swamp he (somehow, in the minds of his base) stands apart from. Democrats appear petty. You lost the Muller probe thing. Now you're just sniping. The unlikelihood of his being found guilty, let alone punished, by a divided Congress gives the whole affair a whiff of political theatre.

One of Trump's main strategies--one that's worked for him well up to now--has been to surround himself with so much scandalous chaff, administrative chaos, and communicative noise that no accountability mechanism can get a clear lock on him. His unprecedented behavior in office normalizes to background noise. Pointing out how out of step it is makes you seem like the problem.

I've come to appreciate how, among some of his supporters, the chaos itself seems empowering, inspiring. He's rocking the boat! He's draining the swamp! He's cleaning house! How can you tell? Well, look how angry he's making the libs! When's the last time they impeached anyone?

My fear is that, even if it comes out that Trump did in fact direct the Ukraine to undermine a political opponent of his, his supporters won't even blink. What's the big deal? All politicians do that. He's just being held to a different standard. You didn't complain when Obama [did something apples-and-oranges different]. Already the specifics of this particular story seem too complicated to communicate in an attention economy/sound-byte world.

Exciting times. Nervous times. We'll see.

JF